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Probability Calculation Football Betting Tips

Implied probability is a conversion of betting odds into a percentage. It takes into account the bookmaker margin to express the expected probability of an outcome occurring.

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Knowing how to convert betting odds into implied probabilities is fundamental for betting as it helps you assess the potential value on a particular market.

Once converted, if the implied probability is less than your assessment, then it represents betting value. The most common odds formats are decimal, American and fractional. The formulas below explain how to convert odds to implied probabilities. Betting odds allow you to calculate how much money you will win if you make a bet.

Let’s use the same examples as before, with the same replacement of numbers for letters, i.e. Quite simply, for every value of B that you bet, you will win A, plus the return of your stake. 91 for every 1 you bet, you will win 9. Based on this, there has a movement to attract more people to horse racing by making it more accessible to the average punter. Ten years ago, if you were going to Cheltenham, all the odds would be displayed as fractional odds.

Now, they’re largely all in decimals. Betting odds represent the probability of an event to happen and therefore enable you to work out how much money you will win if your bet wins. Trend-based probability concern the attack and defensive strength of opposing teams and using information to calculate the probability of a team scoring a certain number of goals against an opponent.

Further reading, which explains how trend-based probability can be used to calculate expected value is here. The real probability is affected by much more than past performance. Value and ultimately, your sports betting success can be affected by bookmaker odds, implied probability and smart money market movements, which can improve our assessment of potential value i.e.

Betting market overestimation or underestimation of the probability. You can get more information and examples using real data, trends and statistics to model the outcome of football matches here. To calculate these probabilities, and as such indirectly sports betting odds, several parameters must be take into account. Firstly, the statistics related to the match will be gathered and taken into consideration by experts. Understanding betting odds comparison.

Using an odds calculator based on probability, bookmakers odds can be used to determine the potential winning of a sports bet. It is by multiplying these odds by the amount you intend to commit that you can estimate the potential gains of your betting coupon odds x bet winning.

For example, if you want to bet on 32 odds, you can earn in winnings. The higher the odds, the greater your potential for winnings, which is why it is imperative to always compare bookmakers' odds before betting. In this calculation you can calculate the probability of an event, based on the odds from a betting company.

If, for example, a betting company has an odds of for team A to win a soccer game you can, with this calculation, determine the probabality of this event to happen according to the betting company. In order to calculate this one need to know or calculate a so called Payback Rate which is determined by the betting company. The Payback Rate is the return the betting company gives back to the players and is usually around 95.

This means that the betting company pays out. Your betting decision is based on how your perceived probability of Chicago winning compares to the implied probabilities given by both the Miami and Chicago odds [back Miami range] bet range] sports betting context, to calculate the expected return from a bet, simply multiply the odds by your perceived probability of winning, then subtract 1.

Formally, for outcome i that has odds of qi and a perceived probability of pi, the expected return for backing it is qi pi 1. Consider again the football fixture discussed earlier.

How to Calculate Betting Odds. One of the big aspects of understanding the odds which you see at a bookmaker is knowing what they actually mean in terms of probability. The odds that are presented, are calculated by the bookmaker in relation to what the bookmaker thinks the chances of a certain outcome of a sporting event happening is.

To convert Fractional odds to probability there is a simple calculation of Denominator divided by Denominator + Enumerator multiplied by Most totals like this on the outcome of a sports event will calculate out to around between and which is the margin that the bookmakers run at for their profits. Converting probability to odds.

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For our coin toss example this requires a simple multiplication Your stake X decimal odds. Being able to calculate probability and understand where odds actually come from is an essential part of evolving as a bettor because it enables you to calculate your own expected frequency for an event starting to model your own odds and then compare what you think will happen with what odds are available.

MORE TOP 20 Cryptocurrency Sportsbooks. MORE Best E-Sports Betting Sites. How handicapping into buckets can help with betting. The hindsight bias effect in sports betting. Betting odds represent both the probability of an outcome occurring, as well as the potential return you could receive on a winning wager. They are an indication of how likely the bookmaker thinks your prediction is. Therefore, they come up with different odds based on those conclusions.

With that said, they are of course competitive, meaning that the differences between odds at least between good bookmakers shouldn’t be worlds apart. On top of that, odds can also change as we move closer to the event. Calculating Winnings from Betting Odds. This is largely covered by our How to Read Odds section but here is a brief overview for anyone who still wants more clarification. Fractional odds follow this formula how much you will winhow much you stake. When you calculate probability, you're attempting to figure out the likelihood of a specific event happening, given a certain number of mapsatwar.usmapsatwar.us The odds of the event happening is the ratio of the probability that it will occur over the probability that it will not occur.

Since there are 11 white and 9 non-white marbles, you’ll write the odds as the ratio. You may need to know that that in sports betting and bookmaking, odds are expressed as odds against, which means that the odds of an event happening are written first, and the odds of an event not happening come second.

Although it can be confusing, it's important to know this if you’re planning to bet on a sporting event.

Odds available in the market are based on the statistical expectation of an event, in other words, the average’ value of historical football match results known value. For simplification and explanation, I am now assuming that odds are calculated arithmetically through the season without considering factors such as the strength of the teams involved and any other aspect of the individual match. Certainly this is not how the odds makers calculate their odds. The Ultimate Guide to Sports Betting - Designed to give you the essential, fundamental knowledge necessary to understand odds calculation and the bookmaker market Bundle contains Course Book, OU Course Study Cluster Tables, Current Cluster Tables for the German Bundesliga. Probability Statistics 23 of 62 Calculating the Odds -For, -Against, and -On - Michel van Biezen Recommended for you.

Sports Betting Tips What is Situational Handicapping Handicapping Tips - Betting Strategies?. In the sports betting world odds are of critical importance for both bookmakers and punters. After all they indicate the payout rate of your winning bets and show the anticipated outcome probability for every event.

It’s not an exact science, but once you start understanding the concept of odds, you are more likely to claim bigger winnings.

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The purpose of this topic is to make you familiar with betting odds at all levels. How to calculate the implied probability of odds? We all know that bookmakers are a clever bunch, they hire lot’s of people who study every aspect of sports. Especially in this modern age of the internet, every stat you could ever dream of is only a mouse click away.

How many times have Bristol City won at home this season.

In sports betting, bookmaker personnel and traders assess this probability, which is then transformed into betting odds.

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Value betting situations will occur where the odds on an event from a bookmaker reflect a probability that is less than the actual probability of this outcome to occur. How is the value on a value bet calculated?

To calculate expected value let’s use a coin flip as an example. Those bets are calculated based on a comparison between bookmaker's market odds with total average odds. Oddspedia overvalue algorithm takes into account various factors and collects data simultaneously from at least several bookmakers. Betting with value included in the bets will statistically lead to long-term profits. The "Odds" column features best betting odds available. Odds Shark’s sports betting odds calculator is a great tool for your handicapping arsenal.

Find out what you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered. You look at the action offered at your favorite sportsbook, handicap accordingly, and place your bets. With our bet calculator you can know exactly what you’d win before making your picks.

Our free sports betting odds calculator converter will allow you to convert odds to different formats instantly as well as calculate your potential winnings. They are mostly utilized by those placing wagers in the United States. American odds are based on the amount it takes to win For instance, if you’re betting something at odds, the standard vigorish, you would have to stake to have a chance to win It works the other way, as well.

At +, a bet would give you a profit if you win your wager.

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Beyond governing how the entire world of sports betting works, odds play a vital role in helping a sports bettor decide if a bet is worth placing or not. All odds carry with them an implied probability, which we then compare to the real probability to determine whether a wager possesses positive value or not. You may want to calculate an odds ratio based on a particular probability.

In order to solve this equation, we will need to express the probability as a fraction. Using the same six-sided die from before, the possibility of our number landing formatted as a fraction is 16. Sports betting allows you to place wagers on a wide number of selections, including winners and tie results. It’s important to understand sports betting odds from the get go so that you can choose the right athlete, team, or event and make some money. American betting odds are easy to understand.

When you see a selection with [ - ] in front of it, you’re looking at the favorite. That negative sign indicates how much money you need to bet to win The way they do this is by offering competitive odds on both teams. There is a favorite and an underdog. The favorite receives the least favorable odds because it is perceived to be most likely to win. To attract bets on the underdog, the bookmaker will offer competitive odds to entice you to place bets on these selections. Betting odds moneyline, handicap, overunder calculation for a football soccer match.

The probabilities odds calculation is based on the methods of mathematical statistics see SPORTS and MATHEMATICS, the basic random variables are the distribution of Poisson or Skellam. Match parameters - Team Goals estimate or basic Odds 1X2 [+ OU].

Bookmakers and odds traders calculate the real probabilities of something happening based on statistics, form, history and ultimately human opinion their own opinions, other bookies opinions and public opinion.

The more data that is available the more likely the bookmaker odds are going to reflect the real probability, if the event has never happened before or there is less data on the outcomes then bookmakers will be more cautious and their odds will be lower reflective of the real probability. See our section on how odds move in response to betting for more about this.

Head to head markets on major sports tend to have the lowest margins, usually between, this can go up to 20 or more if betting on more exotic lines or markets. Online sports betting portal with bookmaker reviews, current bookmaker bonuses, free betting predictions, betting guides, sport events analysis and news from the world of betting.

Bookmakers set odds for events based on many factors. With the ability to read them we can easily determine the probability the bookmaker gives for certain situation to take place. The problem is different bookmakers let punters place their bets in few formats Decimal, Fractional, Moneyline or Malaysian to name the most common. Fractional Odds are extremely simple to calculate because, surprise, they are given in fraction form.

The denominator number is amount put at stake, while nominator number is how much your wager will yield.

Analyze sports betting based on historical statistics and current odds.

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Create MySQL database mysql CREATE DATABASE mmabettingdb Run scripts to populate database with gamematch information and betting odds python scriptsmapsatwar.us python scriptsmapsatwar.us Run application sbt run. Knowing how to convert betting odds can be very helpful.

If you don’t know how to calculate implied probabilities from betting odds you are hurting your chance of making a profit. Implied probabilities are useful whether you are betting on single games, futures, props or live wagering. To determine if one of these wager types offers value one must understand the implied odds behind the bet. Both tell you the same thing, how much money you will get back based on the amount of the wager you place.

With football just around the corner, let’s use examples from the upcoming season to learn how to calculate implied odds. The NFL season kicks off with a Super Bowl rematch between the Denver Broncos and the Carolina Panthers. And football betting is most popular among all sports.

But how does football betting odds work? How are football betting odds calculated? It’s difficult to believe that a simple mathematical equation Poisson distribution is used to calculate the odds for a football match. Betting on a team winning or losing is done based on the calculation explaining the sports betting across a globe. Based on the number by distribution table and the probability of these goals in a match, it is clear that a draw has the highest possibility of, followed by for a draw.

But the possibility of Manchester City winning with or also looks great. Based on the previous match at Old Trafford, which is the home ground to Manchester United, Manchester City won by. The betting odds calculator allows you to input your stake odds in American, Decimal, or Fractional formats to quickly calculate the payout for your bets.

A sports bet accompanied by high odds means that a single wager could potentially more than double your stake andor budget! The advantage A safe single bet suffices you don’t have to resort to risky combo bets. Naturally, you always have to bear in mind the higher the odds, the lower the chance of winning. If we have odds of, the predicted probability is 25. The advantage of betting on the low odds is clear The probability of winning the bet, based on the definition provided above, is or higher.

Low odds should be considered for bets if you wish to rely on winnings as well as pursue a slower, more defensive and more long-term strategy.

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Fast money involving sports bets at low odds simply doesn’t happen. Calculating the Implied Probability of betting odds is easy.

Simply enter the odds into the Implied Probability Calculator on this page and then hit the Convert button. The Implied Probability of the odds will then be displayed in the Probability box. If however, you believe Conor has a 50 chance of winning and the Implied Probability in the odds was 60, then there would be no point in placing the bet because the payout in the odds would not be good enough to cover the risk implied in placing the bet.

The goal of making money in betting is to try and find bets where there is value. You should always convert odds into their Implied Probabilities so that you can determine whether or not you feel the payout from a bet is worth it.

Convert stated odds to a decimal value of probability and a percentage value of winning and losing. This calculator will convert "odds for winning" an event or "odds against winning" an event into percentage chances of both winning and losing. Be careful if you are using sports teams odds or betting odds.

When playing a lottery or other games of chance be sure you understand the odds or probability that is reported by the game organizer. A 1 in chance of winning, or probability of winning, is entered into this calculator as "1 to Odds are for winning". You may also see odds reported simply as chance of winning as This most likely means " to 1 Odds are against winning" which is exactly the same as "1 to Odds are for winning." Probability Formulas. Calculated based on a wide range of statistical information the probability widgets will give the punter a greater sense of control and thus help to facilitate betting decisions.

Clear visualisations that neatly display data in real time make these widgets a great user retention tool that will give you a competitive edge.

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The different widgets can be embedded into any existing website or Betradar’s Live Sports Centre. Season outcome visualisation based on current match result and odds. This visualisation changes in real-time depending on match events. Visualisation of ball possession during and after the match featuring comparison of overall possession for both teams, the percentage of ball saves, attacks and dangerous attacks. Sports betting is very much related to mathematics.

For example a bettor who wants to place a sure bet with guaranteed profit with different online bookmakers needs to make a mathematical operations research in advance, in order to know which stake to place on which bet to know exactly which procentual profit these bets will deliver. A lay betcalculation will be needed to calculate your betting profit when you try to hedge your live inplay bet at betfair. We also suggest to check out our odds calculator app which is free available for all android and iOS devices.

Use this for standard 1x2 bets. Calculate your profit Arbitrage-calculator Odd 1. Sports betting odds explained A beginners guide to help you understand how sports betting odds work. Placing a bet at an online bookmaker can be a bit of a daunting task especially if you are new to sports gambling. Every bet offered will show the odds offered.

It’s all to do with probability. When online bookmakers look at an event they decide on what the probability of an outcome is. This is to say, who the favourites to be the winner are. They then set the odds using the fraction method to tell you exactly who they think will win and what you will win if you predict the correct outcome.

In this case, they feel that the probability is that because Liverpool is at home and playing well, they feel that Liverpool has a better chance of winning the game.

Calculate the odds for your accumulator on this page and you’ll know exactly how much you stand to get as a return from your bets. An accumulator bet is a great way of including several short-priced selections for a bigger return. Welcome to our Odds Calculator page. Simply add in the odds for each betting selection along with your nominated stake.

You can then click on the Calculate button and it will show you how much you can potentially win with your bet. You can add as many selections as you like, with many readers using the Odds Calculator to work out how much a football accumulator would pay if they predict the correct winning teams.

Please note that the more teams you add to your accumulator, the riskier your bet becomes although you stand to enjoy a bigger return. This unique rating is based on several criteria, including traffic rank, user reviews and payout.

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Your current bet slip will be lost. Are you sure that you would like to clear your bet slip. American Style Sports Betting Odds. Most online sportsbooks will list their odds in what is called American Odds. There are a couple different versions of sports betting odds, but these American Odds are the most common odds used. Reading and understanding sports betting odds can bet a little confusing to beginners, so we have provided an example below using two NFL football teams American Odds.

To calculate the decimal style odds all you will need to do is simply multiply the amount you wish to wager by the decimal odds shown and you will get your payout. For example it may look something like this Decimal Odds. Sports betting explained How to bet on sports. Betting is about assessing the chance or probability of an event happening and bookmakers like Pinnacle use odds because it translates implied probability into a more usable form in order to offer betting.

Using implied probability in betting can also help you compare odds between bookmakers. However, if you consider betting to be just about odds, you're missing the bigger picture. Getting a handle on how to calculate probability yourself and converting it into odds is the first step in developing your own assessments of betting value. Once you know how to calculate probability, turning that figure into odds is a straightforward process.

Decimal odds are one of the three main formats used by bettors and bookmakers alike.

Sports betting odds are something probably every grown up person has come across at some point in their life. Besides the most popular types of sports like football, basketball, and tennis, there are many other events you can bet on nowadays. Often times even large newspapers or television shows will refer to odds. For example, they may cite odds for a certain person to become the next president. We will show you how to properly evaluate odds, calculate and convert probabilities, and help you find the best odds for every event.

How Do Online Betting Odds Work? Odds are basically equivalent to probabilities in sports betting. It is a way of expressing the ratio between your stake and the likelihood of winning, based on the projected probability.

From predictions to sports betting. A 10 edge over an expert’s opinion is huge. And I did not even have to do much besides asking the beloved Poisson processes to chunk out numbers. Let’s assume that the bookmakers’ odds are a perfect reflection of the probability of the various teams winning, drawing or losing. So, for that Arsenal-Man United clash, since the odds Bet gave to Arsenal winning are, the probability of them winning is simply 1, surprisingly close to my prediction of 45.

For each match, the amount of bet will be calculated by the Kelly criterion, which works based on the principle you should invest only a fraction of your wealth. By keeping some aside, you will not end up in bankruptcy.

In this episode, we continue on the topic of probability and odds. In addition, we will give you the formula for calculating the Odds of any game, and the formula for calculating the Probability of In the last part of the episode, we will give a short explanation of how we calculate the probability of a team to win a certain game and what return you are expected to get.

Value betting betting on an event only when there is value in it. A value bet is in place when the odds you have calculated are lower than those available. This is your calculation for home win probability. The away win probability is calculated at. An easy procedure but there is a problem. Where is the draw probability and how will affect the other 2 probabilities? Since the above method is inadequate, you need some other stats.

You check now the draw stats for each team.

Calculating odds and probability opens up a new world for calculating value but you also want to know what your bet will payout. For our coin toss example this requires a simple multiplication Your stake X decimal odds. So if you bet 10 on Heads with odds of your return including stake is x 10 which equals 20 this includes your 10 stake + 10 profit. Being able to calculate probability and understand where odds actually come from is an essential part of evolving as a bettor because it enables you to calculate your own expected frequency for an event starting to model your own odds.

Sports betting odds are designed to, at a glance, give readers an idea of how likely it is that each teamcompetitor will win as well as how much money you could make with a successful bet on that outcome. In other words, you can use them to get a quick idea of the underdog and the favorite. To decide what odds they offer, bookmakers look at a range of factors. These odds, and the implied probability of success, can change before or after the bet has been placed.

Some sportsbooks will update their odds based on circumstantial changes more quickly than others. Armed with the knowledge of how to calculate potential winnings, you can see what represents the most profitable bet for you, should you end up winning.

Calculate probability, odds formulas, hypergeometric formula with software calculators for lotto, lottery, casino gambling, Powerball, Mega Millions, Euromillions. Calculate the probability, odds that Player with index N in a group draws Ticket number N when M tickets with unique names, numbers are dropped in a hat or jar. Bayes Theorem is an important but imprecise method of determining conditional probabilities from statistical data, simulation, surveys, polling, voter turnout.

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Quick guide to low odds betting. Find out when you should back favorites, how to place winning bets and view 5 critical tips for winning with short odds. Find valued odd on favorites and discover new ways of winning. If you bet on Real Madrid to beat Valladolid in odds you simply clarify that Real has some 80 chance of winning this.

That’s a huge difference climbing from theoretical 33 to 80. So, you have to double-check If not multi-check all available data before staking on a safe football bet on low odds. Sports betting is enjoyed by billions of punters worldwide, from bustling urban centers in East China to the secluded glaciers of South America.

Please help me how to calculate this probability from odds ratio OR relative risk. Second, the first response assumed you have log odds the logit coefficient rather than the OR or RR. Most statistical packages let you choose your outputs and offer OR output that has already been exponentiated.

Bookmakers set different odds based on their own expertise and a betting exchange. Calculating probability is all about doing your homework! For example, if Manchester United was to draw Dover Athletic in the FA Cup, United would be the most likely winner. Find out more about football bets and tips if you’re interested in having a bet.

This is because they have played in top-flight football for over 20 years and have a stronger team than Athletic, who are a non-league side. Making the most of your sports bets is all about figuring out which betting odds are best for you. Do you want to go all out punting on long odds? Or would you rather ensure you have a guaranteed return.

Fixed-odds betting is a form of wagering against odds offered by a bookmaker or an individual or on a bet exchange. In Australia, the practice is usually known as "SP betting". It is customary with fixed-odds gambling to know the odds at the time of the placement of the wager the "live price", but the category also includes wagers whose price is determined only when the race or game starts the "starting prices".

It is ideal for bookmakers to pricemark up a book such that the net outcome will.

Calculating Probabilities Calculating probabilities in roulette is relatively easy and simply involves using the fraction and dividing and multiplying accordingly. It’s basic school mathematics. So for example, let’s say you wanted to place a bet on red you would use the following formula 1837 x This would give you the percentage chance of you winning.

There are 18 reds out of 37 numbers on the table which gives a decimal of Multiply that by to gain the percentage and it’s. You can do this with any probability on a roulette wheel. However, when it comes to working o.

Odds-based probability forecasts have been shown to be better or at least as good as statistical models using sports-related input variables Forrest et al., Song et al., trumbelj and Vraar, expert tipsters Song et al., Spann and Skiera, and aggregated lay predictions Pachur and Biele, Scheibehenne and Broder. The bins are based on the quantiles of the inverse betting odds for match and bookmaker. Therefore, for a given sport, the bins are same for all four methods.

Within-bin biases are relatively small, but none of the methods appear to be perfectly calibrated-in-the-small.

Sports Betting Statistics RSS. All the proof you need that Trademate Sports is profitable. October 8, Once the initial odds line has been set it will be adjusted based on market movements, meaning how much money is put on the different outcomes. The efficient market hypothesis used in financial markets states that it is impossible to beat the market, because the existing asset prices always incorporate and reflect all relevant information.

So if an asset is underpriced in the stock market, it will lead to investors buying the stock until it returns to its intrinsic value or in other words a fair price. Because this would result in placing larger bets on lower odds larger win probability and higher edges more value.

Fixed-odds betting is a form of wagering against odds offered by a bookmaker or an individual or on a bet exchange. In Australia, the practice is usually known as "SP betting". It is customary with fixed-odds gambling to know the odds at the time of the placement of the wager the "live price", but the category also includes wagers whose price is determined only when the race or game starts the "starting prices".

It is ideal for bookmakers to pricemark up a book such that the net outcome will.

Our betting odds calculator takes a step further and calculates the percentage probability of winning and losing. The team would win 5 out of 6 games and lose 1 of them. By converting fraction to percent, we can say that the chances of winning are 56, and of losing 16. Do you understand how we calculated this percentage? If not, take a look at the odds formulas probability of winning chances for success all chances.

Probability of losing chances against success all chances. Odds Calculator can be embedded on your website to enrich the content you wrote and make it easier for your visitors to understand your message. It is free, awesome and will keep people coming back!.

Value Bet Calculator - Find Value Bets Calculate expected value in betting, Using the odds value calculator allows you to see the value which you would expect to receive for a bet based on the probability of that outcome mapsatwar.us Bet Calculator - Find Value Bets Calculate expected value in betting, Using the odds value calculator allows you to see the value which you. Would expect to receive for a bet based on the probability of that outcome occurring.

BetClan, A lot of fans and analyst always give a prediction about who is going to win the match before it starts and Prediction is done.

Stake Maximum stake Decimal Odds Odds offered by the bookmaker Chance Win Probability of winning as determined by you, expressed as a decimal point. Let’s say you have calculated the probability as 55 on an even-money bet Stake x 1 1 x Stake 1 1 x Stake 10. Anyone who has invested time and money in sports betting understands that no matter how sound your research and analysis has been, a series of losing bets by account of bad luck is entirely possible.

This method is common in roulette and people think it’s fail-proof. Other than that, a betting system based on proven mathematical principles is a good starting point. Look towards Betfair Trading or challenge bets.

Probabilities based on closing betting odds. Home team's win probability Draw probability Away team's win probability Over goals probability You can also define probabilities using betting odds by filling the fields below. If you want to change probabilities above again, then you have to clear one of the value below 1, X or 2, otherwise system calculate probabilities using betting odds. The variance indicates the maximum difference from the calculated probability in percentage points.

Winning money in sports betting is not about picking winners. The secret is in estimating the real probabilities better than the bookies and other bettors. Calculates the real probabilities of all the tennis matches. WinnerOdds estimates the real probabilities even before the bookmakers publish their odds.

Then, to make sure that you always bet with positive expected value, we show them as Minimum Profitable Odds for each outcome, just when the bookmakers offer the events. WinnerOdds is a tennis betting tips service, based in an Artificial Intelligence algorithmthat finds automatically Value Bets in order to invest in the global gambling market. With the WinnerOdds betting tips, you will just invest consistently in Value bets that are profitable in the long term.